Betting School

Football Strategy

over/under

How to bet on over/under market?

The over/under market consists of predicting the number of goals that will be scored between the two teams in the match.

In this bet, the goals scored by the two teams are added together, which increases the probability of higher scores and more emotions when betting, because it is always expected that each attacking play will be converted into a goal.

Usually in Football, the standard line for bookmakers is the 2.5 line. This means that you can bet on the over 2.5 goals in the match (3 goals or more between the two teams) or you can also bet on the under 2.5 goals (2 goals or less between the two teams).

More than 60% of the money collected by bookmakers comes from this market. It is therefore extremely important that you make a great analysis before betting on this market, that you are not always tempted to believe that many goals will be scored in the matches. On the contrary, you should have the ability to differentiate between an even match, with good defenders and few scoring options, and an open match, with many scoring situations. 

Step 1: Preliminary Research

Before placing any bet on the Over/Under Goals market, it is essential to conduct thorough research. Here are the key aspects to consider:

Step 2: Detailed Analysis

Once you have gathered the initial information, dig deeper into the analysis:

  • Match History: Examine the head-to-head history between the teams – are there usually high scoring games when they play each other or are they more of close games?

  • Match Timing: Consider where the match is in the tournament. At the end of the season, for example, teams may be more tired and matches may become more tactical.

  • Motivation: Assess the motivation of the teams. If one of the teams is fighting to avoid relegation or to qualify for important competitions, they are more likely to be games with less risk and, therefore, fewer goals.

Step 3: Strategy Development

Based on your analysis, you can develop a strategy for betting on the Over/Under market:

  • Know the Over/Under Lines: bookmakers set goal lines at different levels (e.g., 2.5 goals, 3.5 goals, etc.). Understand what each line entails and how it relates to your research?

  • Trends and Patterns: Look for trends in past team results in terms of goals. If a team has been involved in several games with more than 2.5 goals, it could indicate a tendency toward open games.

  • In-Play Betting: If you see the game starting off strong with scoring opportunities, you might consider placing a bet on the Over Goals market during the course of the match
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